From my report of last month I promised some facts and figures and I’m here to deliver. 

Before we go straight into the math end of this business, I want to take a moment to explain a couple of the terms. 

First, I often use a metric called Absorption Rate.  This is a common real estate industry term, expressed as a percentage, defined by the number of homes available for sale in a given area divided into the number of homes in that same area that are pending.  A pending status means that the listed home is near closing and past a point of falling out of contract, with perhaps the exception of final lender approval.  The absorption rate measures the local markets ability to “absorb” the homes that are for sale. 

I calculate these rates for a number of areas each month.  It leads me to pricing strategies for new listings, among other decision points.

The second term, or set of terms  I use are, Balanced Market, Sellers Market and Buyers Market.  A balanced market is defined by an absorption rate greater than 24% and less than 30%, a sweet spot that usually places buyers and sellers on an equal footing.  A sellers market is defined as an absorption rate 30% or greater, a buyers market is a rate less than 25%.    Make sense?  OK, lets move into the figures, I think you will be surprised.

Ill define the Seattle area by the borders of King County, which includes the cities of Seattle, Bellevue, Bothell, Woodinville, Kirkland, Redmond, Sammamish, Issaquah, Renton , and many more.  Hence the name King I suppose. 

Looking at a ten year period of absorption rates from 1998 until March of 2008 we find that since August of 2007 King County  has been in a record buyers market for 8 months in a row. 

The absorption rate for Aug07= 22%, Sep07=15%, Oct07=17%,Nov07=16%, Dec07=14%, Jan08=14%, Feb08=16%,March08=16%.   That folks, is a ten year record. 

Lets just sit back and absorb that for a moment, then we will move on.

Here is the “slide” from a sellers market into a buyers market that took place in that last 15 months; Jan07=33%, Feb07=41%, Mar07=43%, Apr07=37%, May07=35%, June07=31%, Jul07=26%, Aug=22%, Sept07=15%, Oct07=17%, Nov07=16%, Dec=14%.

Looking back one can clearly see the slide happening, but before you try to predict what April of 08 will bring, try this little exercise.  Take the above line and with a piece of paper, cover all the figures except Jan07, then try and predict each month, uncover it and predict the next.  Its an exercise that will quickly show just how difficult it is to predict the future using historical data.  

The last time there were as many consecutive months of being well in the territory of a buyers market was 2002, where we had a buyers market for 6 months in a row, from Sep02 thru  Feb03. 

However, as one looks at the number of homes for sale and pending you have to note the difference in volume from 2002 to 2008.  For instance December of 2002 had 9,243 for sale while Dec 2008 had 10,947,  pending were 2,049 and 1,488 respectively.  Wow, ouch!  

OK, lets break it all down for March into the neighborhoods by zip code, a dizzy chart of figures to be sure but if you live or are thinking of living in one of these burgs, this is a nice data point to have.  Note, this isnt all inclusive, although it looks like it, I have not gone farther north of Seattle nor farther south deeper into Renton.


March 2008         
        
City              Zip                    Area                                         Active & STI     Pendings    Solds    AB Rate  
Seattle        98101 Pike Place / Water Front / Down Town                     110                 20               9      18.18%  
                  98102 East Lake Union                                                     216                 30             11      13.89%  
                  98103 Freemont / GreenLake/Wallingford/ North Gate        322                 66             64      20.50%  
                  98104 Pioneer Square / Qwest Field                                   59                  11             11      18.64%  
                  98105 LaurelHurst / Ravenna                                            90                   27             30     30.00%  
                  98106 Westwood / SSCC                                                135                   21             34     15.56%  
                  98107 Ballard                                                                168                   39             48     23.21%  
                  98108 Rainer Valley / George Town / White Center           100                   16             23     16.00%  
                  98109 West Lake Union                                                   201                  20             26       9.95%  
                  98112 Capital Hill / Montlake / Madison Park                     163                  22             22     13.50%  
                  98115 Greenlake/Ravenna / View Ridge / Inverness          224                  54             45     24.11%  
                  98116 Alki / West Seattle                                                 214                 26             35     12.15%  
                  98117 North Beach / Crown Hill /  Loyal Heights                 157                 46             41     29.30%  
                  98118 Columbia / Rainer Beach                                        292                 49             30     16.78%
                  98119 Queen Anne                                                          165                 29             35     17.58%
                  98121 BellTown / Water Front                                           213                66              21     30.99%
                  98122 First Hill / Central Area / Madrona Park                    274                46              34     16.79%
                  98125 North Seattle / Lake City                                        181                45              35     24.86%
                  98126 Delridge                                                                129                36             32      27.91%
                  98133 North Gate / Haller Lake / Bitter Lake / Shoreline      234                38             48      16.24%
                  98134 Harbor Island / Safeco Field                                        4                 0               0        0.00%
                  98136 Fauntleroy                                                              139               23             31       16.55%
                  98144 Beacon Hill / Mount Baker                                        182               29             22      15.93%
                  98155 Lake Forest Park / North City /                                 180               35             37      19.44%
                  98177 ShoreLine / Innis / Arden / Highlands / Richmondeach 127              18             13      14.17%
                  98199 Interbay & Magnolia                                                 147              24             24       16.33%

Woodinville  98072 Hollywood / Cottege Lake /                                     211                20             23        9.48%
       
Kirkland      98034 Juanita / KingsGate                                                 372                43             31       11.56%
                  98033 Forbes Creek / Bridle Trails                                     546                46             55         8.42%
      
Redmond     98052 Willows Run / Earlmont / Avondale / Hollywood        402                88              71        21.89%
      
Medina         98039 Medina                                                                  47                  2               4          4.26%
       
Mercer Island98040 Mercer Island                                                      184                 28              19        15.22%
       
Bellevue      98004 Clyde Hill / Downtown                                           453                62               23        13.69%
                  98005 Wilburn                                                                112                22               15        19.64%
                  98006 Somerset / EastGate / Lakemont                            251                36               39        14.34%
                  98007 LakeHills                                                              107                17                 9        15.89%
                  98008 Vasa Park / Lake Sammamish / Rosemont Beach    134                28               23        20.90%
      
NewCastle  98056 May Creek                                                            273                26              25          9.52%
                 98059 Cougar Mtn / LakeMont / Renton                             359                89              57        24.79%
      
Issaquah    98027 Dwntwn/ Squak Mtn /  Cougar Mtn / Talus / Highland264                28              33        10.61%
                 98029 Klahanie                                                               338                58              52        17.16%
      
Sammamish98074 Sahalee / Adelaide                                                225               37              42        16.44%
                  98075 MonoHan / Pine Lake / Beaver Lake                        178               24              14        13.48%
      
Snoqualmie98024 Preston / Fall City                                                     91                8                5          8.79%
                 98065 Snoqualmie Ridge / Preston / Tokul / North Bend       207              30              13         14.49%
      
North Bend 98045 RattleSanke Mtn / Tanner                                         127              10                8          7.87%

If you got through all of that and are still awake, give yourself a pat on the back.

Wouldnt it be nice if we could just take the lowest absorption rate, run out with our Realtor and start making offers?  

This is but one of several data points to be considered when either buying or selling.  For example 98134, Harbor Island scores a big fat goose egg for absorption, but this is largely where the shipping containers are loaded and the port operates Seattle Harbor.  Not very conducive for the peace and quite of single family home ownership.  One of many reasons you need the advice and council of an agent that knows the area before you dive in as a buyer or seller.

Absorption rate provides a nice barometer going into the year and we will keep a weather eye on these rates as our traditional buying season for this region starts to heat up in the coming months.

Now, if I replaced the word Home with Salmon and the numbers represented pounds of salmon available versus those sold, wouldn’t you be inclined to visit the grocery store and check the price of a pound of Salmon?  I know I would.  And I would increase my rate of Salmon absorption to be sure.   You can do that easily right at your PC or MAC. 

Well, actually I don’t know about the Salmon but you can easily check homes in your neighborhood or other areas of interest by setting up a search account at www.Seattleshomesearch.com   (shameless plug) and checking out the home prices in differing areas.  The search results delivery is automated and the search tool is quite easy to use.  Who knows you might just discover a nice price on a pound of home.


As a final note, we are seeing a steady pick up in buyer interest in the Seattle area and if you happen to be a buyer, take note of these numbers and share this information with your Realtor.  They will know you are doing your homework and you both will benefit from a little bit more knowledge of the market. 

If you are a seller, take heart, brighter days are on the horizon.
 
RH


http://www.seattleshomesearch.com

You can find great local Seattle, Washington real estate information on Localism.com Rich Hamman is a proud member of the ActiveRain Real Estate Network, a free online community to help real estate professionals grow their business.